Marginalia

The Problem of Induction

No non-circular argument shows that the future will resemble the past — yet all science and daily life depend on it.

Period 1739
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Every sunrise so far does not logically entail tomorrow’s. To get from “always so far” to “always”, we need the premise that nature is uniform. But that premise is itself supported only by past experience — an inductive argument used to justify induction.

David Hume‘s verdict: induction is not grounded in reason but in custom or habit. We could not live otherwise, but we cannot prove we are right.

Famous replies: Immanuel Kant (causality is a category the mind brings to experience); Bertrand Russell’s chicken, fed every day until the day the farmer wrings its neck; Karl Popper (science doesn’t use induction — it conjectures and refutes); Nelson Goodman’s “grue”, which makes the problem even worse.

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